News and AnalysIs for

On Sunday, Colombians voted for the Senate and lower chamber (Representatives). As of writing, there are no official results but the much simpler Senate structure makes it easier to be reasonably accurate with predictions, based on the popular vote.

Frontera Energy reversed course March 5, 2026, determining that a binding offer from Parex Resources to acquire its Colombian upstream exploration and production assets constitutes a “Superior Proposal” compared to its previously announced arrangement with GeoPark Limited.

Colombia’s National Hydrocarbon Agency reported collecting CoP$29.6T in royalties between August 2022 and December 2025, demonstrating strong fiscal performance despite challenges in the sector.

Commercial tensions between Colombia and Ecuador escalated dramatically after Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa announced initial tariffs on Colombian imports, triggering a 900% increase in crude oil transport fees that directly impacts Ecopetrol’s operations.

But we still think the issues are mostly beyond management’s control. That is, it is not Ricardo Roa and the Petro government’s fault (entirely) at least at the operational level. Strategy? Management distractions? That’s another issue.

Gran Tierra Energy announced Q4 2025 average working interest production of 46,344 boed and full-year 2025 production of 45,709 boed, representing a 32% increase from 2024, driven by positive exploration results in Ecuador, full-year Canadian operations, partially offset by pipeline disruptions in Southern Colombia and Ecuador. The company achieved its seventh consecutive year of South American reserves growth with over 100% reserve replacement for both PDP and 2P categories, reporting year-end reserves of 142 mmboe (1P), 258 mmboe (2P), and 329 mmboe (3P).