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The public utilities industry body Andesco issued a formal warning on May 21 that Colombia has a critical and non-extendable window of three to four months to take regulatory and operational action before El Niño drives the country into an energy supply crisis.

Three industry voices converged in the third week of May to paint a consistent and sobering picture of Colombia’s gas supply exposure as El Niño approaches: the country is entering the dry season with falling domestic production, record import volumes, a single regasification terminal already running near capacity, and a key gas producer in insolvency proceedings.

Colombia’s Canacol Energy “crisis” moved on two fronts simultaneously in the third week of May, with a regulatory field inspection confirming a substantial shortfall between the company’s contractual gas commitments and its actual output, while pipeline operator Promigas escalated its opposition to Canacol’s proposed contract terminations before a Canadian court — warning of consequences it described as catastrophic for the national energy system.

Juan Camilo Restrepo, a former minister in various portfolios under various governments, has warned that Colombia’s converging gas supply and electricity challenges could require the government to invoke a constitutional economic emergency — a measure last used in the 1990s to bail out the country’s struggling power companies during the Gaviria-era rationing crisis.

MinEnergy has published a draft resolution laying out measures to protect natural gas supply and electricity system reliability during the scheduled maintenance of the SPEC LNG regasification terminal in Cartagena, planned for a five-day window between July 30 and August 3, 2026.

Colombia enters its May 31 presidential first round with four polling firms pointing in the same general direction — Iván Cepeda first, Abelardo de la Espriella second, Paloma Valencia third — but diverging so sharply on margins that they imply fundamentally different results.