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Colombia’s fiscal crisis has pushed hydrocarbon policy to the center of the 2026 presidential campaign, forcing every major candidate — regardless of ideology — to grapple with the same uncomfortable arithmetic: the country’s public finances depend heavily on oil revenues, even as the sector faces declining reserves and mounting pressure over energy security.

The oil and gas services industry body Campetrol delivered a bleak April snapshot that captures Colombia’s gas predicament in two simultaneous trends pulling in opposite directions: imports hit a record high while the drilling activity needed to reverse the country’s declining domestic production fell further.

Promigas’s Q1 2026 investor presentation reveals that the SPEC LNG regasification terminal in Cartagena is carrying a larger share of Colombia’s gas system than any previously published figure had indicated — and that the company is moving to expand its capacity before the end of the year.

The public utilities industry body Andesco issued a formal warning on May 21 that Colombia has a critical and non-extendable window of three to four months to take regulatory and operational action before El Niño drives the country into an energy supply crisis.

Three industry voices converged in the third week of May to paint a consistent and sobering picture of Colombia’s gas supply exposure as El Niño approaches: the country is entering the dry season with falling domestic production, record import volumes, a single regasification terminal already running near capacity, and a key gas producer in insolvency proceedings.

Colombia’s Canacol Energy “crisis” moved on two fronts simultaneously in the third week of May, with a regulatory field inspection confirming a substantial shortfall between the company’s contractual gas commitments and its actual output, while pipeline operator Promigas escalated its opposition to Canacol’s proposed contract terminations before a Canadian court — warning of consequences it described as catastrophic for the national energy system.