News and AnalysIs for

This week was the week of the press statements and public speeches. The most important exchange was between the President and “Ivan Marquez” who heads or at least is the visible leader of the guerrilla team, but there was also an exchanges between Juan Camilo Restrepo, the Agriculture Minister and alias “Marquez”.

Norte de Santander is a crude producing department but it has no refineries. It is closer to Venezuelan refineries than Colombian ones and there is a large problem with contraband because Venezuelan gasoline is subsidized and Colombian is not. Thus service stations in the northeast have developed legally sanctioned supply chains into the neighbor country. Because of the turmoil in its neighbor, the Colombian government has stepped in to assure supply. From a MinMinas press release, translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

As many media reported, MinTransporte Cecilia Álvarez asked the oil companies to move their pipelines that currently hinder infrastructure projects development. Alvarez said that in the case of Pacific Rubiales, it is important to reach an agreement for the company to move its pipelines in the sector I of the Ruta del Sol.

The graph shows the destinations of Ecopetrol’s crude oil exports since early 2011. This is not the whole picture obviously – other companies do not provide this helpful detail – but it is illustrative. From a peak of 77% of exports in 3Q11, the US has diminished as an export destination to less than half, 46%. The US Gulf of Mexico alone has shrunk from 68% to less than 30%. Finally in 4Q11 a new top destination was crowned, the Far East, driven by deals in India and China (although the US as a whole remains the largest customer overall).

Gran Tierra published its 4Q12 and full year 2012 results. As can be seen from the graph, 4Q12 was not a great quarter for Colombian production. The company reported lower production and higher transport costs due to the disruption of the TransAndino pipeline. Although much of the country enjoyed the Farc’s unilateral truce in 4Q12, the guerrilla’s parting gesture was to blow up the pipeline just before announcing the ceasefire. This was a major disruption that was still unrepaired in mid-December and the result can be seen in production.

Since September 27th 2011, Ecopetrol and Pacific Rubiales have disputed the interpretation of a clause in the Quifa Association Contract. According to this clause, which refers to high prices, Ecopetrol should have greater participation in the profits when oil prices rise and the cumulative production reaches 5M barrels; a figure which was reached in April 2011.