News and AnalysIs for

This month has fewer articles so we can devote more space to our first Quick Pulse survey, conducted in late December.

Click on the icon below to download the presentation in pdf format.

In 2014, Colombians will elect a new president even if the new president is the present one, Juan Manuel Santos. There are a range of candidates from the far left to the right but President Santos is currently leading the polls.

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were down significantly this week at 16 well below recent and long-term averages. However, non-Armed Forces incidents were about twice the long-term average in percentage terms, about average in absolute terms. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Correspondingly our 4-week Moving Average incident count was down at 26.5 and the 52 week average was down slightly but essentially unchanged at 32.8 incidents per week.

Incidents near areas of interest to the oil and gas industry were up this week at 34 above recent and long-term averages. However, non-Armed Forces incidents were only about half the long-term average. This is our indicator of increased guerrilla-initiated activity. Correspondingly our 4-week Moving Average incident count was up at 29.5 and the 52 week average was up slightly but essentially unchanged at 32.9 incidents per week.

If Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC) brought CAPEX back home, Pacific Rubiales (TSX: PRE) did the opposite, raising exploration investment outside Colombia by 67%.