News and AnalysIs for

Ahead of its May 12 results release, Ecopetrol has published preliminary estimates for Q1 2026 that point to net profit of between CoP$2T and CoP$3T — a range that, if confirmed, would mark eleven consecutive quarters of year-on-year earnings decline (in pesos) since the peak of early 2023.

GeoPark used its 1Q26 operational update to reinforce a message it has been building since late 2025: that the company has turned a corner.

Moody’s has downgraded Oleoducto Central S.A. (Ocensa) one notch to Ba2 with a negative outlook, in a move that reflects the rating agency’s discomfort with the structural ties binding Colombia’s principal crude pipeline to its financially troubled majority shareholder – rather than any deterioration in Ocensa’s own operations.

ExxonMobil’s discovery of more than 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil in Guyana’s deep waters over the past six to seven years – described by environmental groups as the largest oil find of the 21st century – has set off a wave of hydrocarbon ambition across the Caribbean basin that civil society organizations are now calling “the Guyana effect.”

A CoP$400 increase in the pump price of gasoline effective May 2026 — combined with a CoP$121 rise in the CREG’s diesel reference price — has brought renewed attention to the cumulative fuel cost burden Colombians have absorbed since 2022.

Parex Resources used a pair of May 4 announcements to underscore a strategic push deeper into Colombia — one deal adding mature producing assets through its existing Ecopetrol partnership, the other moving its transformative Frontera acquisition a step closer to closing.