News and AnalysIs for

Three industry voices converged in the third week of May to paint a consistent and sobering picture of Colombia’s gas supply exposure as El Niño approaches: the country is entering the dry season with falling domestic production, record import volumes, a single regasification terminal already running near capacity, and a key gas producer in insolvency proceedings.

Colombia’s Canacol Energy “crisis” moved on two fronts simultaneously in the third week of May, with a regulatory field inspection confirming a substantial shortfall between the company’s contractual gas commitments and its actual output, while pipeline operator Promigas escalated its opposition to Canacol’s proposed contract terminations before a Canadian court — warning of consequences it described as catastrophic for the national energy system.

Juan Camilo Restrepo, a former minister in various portfolios under various governments, has warned that Colombia’s converging gas supply and electricity challenges could require the government to invoke a constitutional economic emergency — a measure last used in the 1990s to bail out the country’s struggling power companies during the Gaviria-era rationing crisis.

MinEnergy has published a draft resolution laying out measures to protect natural gas supply and electricity system reliability during the scheduled maintenance of the SPEC LNG regasification terminal in Cartagena, planned for a five-day window between July 30 and August 3, 2026.

Colombia enters its May 31 presidential first round with four polling firms pointing in the same general direction — Iván Cepeda first, Abelardo de la Espriella second, Paloma Valencia third — but diverging so sharply on margins that they imply fundamentally different results.

So earnings season comes to an end and, apart from a few special charges, a generally positive one. Brent over US$100/bl will do that. But, unsurprisingly perhaps, that is not what people are talking about