News and AnalysIs for

The National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) published their (outgoing) president’s slides from his presentation to Cera Week, the big oil and gas investor show in Houston last week. What he said is just as important as what the slides say but there still are messages. Orlando Cabrales could not have displayed these slides and said things that radically deviated from their implicit message. Here we focus on unconventional resources for adding to reserves. The graph shows how important unconventional resources are to the ANH’s “Abundance” scenario for new reserves up to 2030.

A few weeks ago we reported a La Republica article outlining a number of potential changes. But nobody else but Reuters picked up the story and the ANH (unusually) started issuing press releases on Orlando Cabrales’ activities. Directly after the news report he was to represent Colombia at an unconventional hydrocarbons conference in Buenos Aires and present at the global industry’s biggest event, Cera Week in Houston. Now, on the second day after he gets back, he finds himself with a new job. From a MinMinas press release translated and with commentary by Hydrocarbons Colombia.

The ‘Qifa case’ has acquired a life of its own. This lawsuit between Pacific Rubiales and Ecopetrol turns on a clause that triggers an increase in Ecopetrol’s participation once production hits a certain level. The fight is over whether the trigger is defined by total production or just Pacific Rubiales’ net production. So much has been published on such little understanding that a number of ‘myths’ have arisen that Pacific has gone public to deny.

Incidents were down again this week to 40 just a little below the long term average. Again this week a higher than recent average number of the items were initiated by the Armed Forces which is a good sign. Our 4-week Moving Average was down very slightly and it now sits at 42 incidents per week closer to what amounts to a long-term average.

According to Mercedes Rincón, member of Congress, in view of the profits that currently Ecopetrol earns, it is clear that the government was wrong when, two years ago, it tried to sell 10% of the company’s shares that owned. As reported by El Nuevo Siglo, the congresswoman believes that the government’s aborted attempt to sell another 10% would have been a bad idea and it has proven better to have held onto the shares.

While it may seem that the USO’s campaign to discredit the mining and energy industries is self-destructive, one must keep in mind that their goal is not to close the industry but to force multinationals to leave. They want to go back to the days when Ecopetrol ran everything and thus 100% of the jobs were USO jobs. Terpel workers settle for about 4% (which is only slightly over the inflation rate) and Cartagena refinery workers vote to go on strike. If the union manages to stop construction as well, that will delay the Cartagena refinery upgrades even more than they have been.