News and AnalysIs for

Benchmark crude oil prices peaked in the week of June 14 to 20 and have fallen virtually every week since then.

The overall count increased to 24 this week, below recent and long-term averages but non-Armed Forces reported incidents declined. This means the increase was due to Army-related activity.

The overall count decreased again to 18 this week, below recent and long-term averages. This week both Armed Forces and non-Armed Forces reported incidents declined.

The overall count decreased again to 23 this week, below recent and long-term averages. But as the graph shows, this was because of a decline in Armed Forces-reported activities. Our proxy for guerrilla-initiated incidents remained the same.

We are in end-of-year vacations and, if only for a brief period, we will spend more time thinking about family (hopefully) than work.

The Farc have grabbed headlines this week after unilaterally declaring a bilateral, indefinite cease fire.  That is, the guerrilla says that as long as it is not attacked by government troops, it will not attack either. But that starts on December 20^th and, in the meantime, they blew up the Transandino pipeline.