At this time of year, companies are in the closing stages of their 2016 planning. Considering the time frame of most oil and gas investments, one input is very long-term forecasts of overall demand, at least implicitly as companies try to look at long-term prices.
The headline on Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) results was that it made money while the rest of the industry lost. Inside Colombia, the comparison is unfair because it has no rivals with the same breadth and as the above graph shows, the Transport sector save the day.
The battle over oil prices is a battle over production with Saudi Arabia saying it wants to regain US market share lost to higher-cost shale oil. But that is light oil and US refineries still need a significant supply of heavy crude due to the configuration of their plants. The graph shows that the US represents an increasing share of Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) exports, at least over the last six quarters.
The decision by the Ministry of Mines of Energy (MinMinas) to modify the formula used to figure natural gas prices on the Caribbean Coast has left few content. Proponents of the change now want more action, the gas industry says it threatens investment and observers comment on how it impacts long term projects.
Despite signs of advances over the second half of this year, regulations for how to proceed with the production of Coal Bed Methane (CBM) are still not ready, although the government says it is working intensely to address the issue.
An absence of exploratory results from the hydrocarbons industry is likely to extend until 2017 warns the National Association of Financial Institutions (ANIF), and Ecopetrol’s (NYSE:EC) results will continue to suffer despite production increases, representing a loss of between 1-2% of the GDP.
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